Opening Day is here, and if you’re anything like us, you’ve spent the last month telling yourself you won’t bet baseball until you “have a feel for the season”… and then you woke up today with three tabs open and a moral compass that’s suddenly gone missing.
Below are my best plays for Opening Day / Opening Weekend. The podcast episode is embedded on this page if you want the full breakdown and banter alongside it.
Quick note: odds will move, markets will open late, and books will disagree — so shop around. And as always: keep it responsible.
Early Slate Double
Orioles win (ML) + Over 7.5 Rays/Cardinals
Price: 3.27 (Bet365 + TAB)
Leg 1 — Orioles to win
I’ll keep the Orioles section short, because my hype around them has been well-documented on the pod over the last month.
I love Joe Ryan, but he’s historically struggled to go deep into games, and I don’t expect Opening Day to be the day that changes. After trading away half the roster at last year’s deadline — including key bullpen pieces — the back end of this game sets up nicely for Baltimore if it’s close after five.
Leg 2 — Over 7.5 (Rays vs Cardinals)
On paper, this is one of the weaker Opening Day starting pitching matchups, and I don’t expect the bullpens behind them to magically fix that (with respect to the Tampa pitching factory).
I’m expecting runners on base across all nine innings, and with two young lineups that can run into power, 7.5 feels a touch light.
Late Slate Double
D-backs Team Total Over 3.5 + Mariners Team Total Over 3.5
Price: 3.75 (Bet365 + PointsBet)
Leg 1 — D-backs TT Over 3.5
Despite a middling record last year (awful pitching), Arizona finished 2025 with the fourth most productive run-scoring lineup in baseball at 4.88 runs per game, and they were consistent whether home or away.
We saw Webb put in a shocker today (7 earned runs), which I’m putting down partly to the lack of true spring build-up after pitching for Team USA in the WBC. Yamamoto could face something similar tomorrow after an uncharacteristic outing against Venezuela.
With Corbin Carroll reportedly good to go for Opening Day, Arizona’s lineup looks strong enough to get to four runs.
Leg 2 — Mariners TT Over 3.5
Tanner Bibee looms as one of Opening Day’s weaker starters, with a 4.24 ERA last year and a strikeout rate below 9. The peripherals aren’t flash: whiff rate around 37th percentile, chase rate around 16th — and the key to beating Seattle lately has been missing bats.
There are still question marks around the bottom half of the Mariners lineup (as flagged in the AL West preview), but the top-end power — Raleigh, JRod, Naylor and Randy — is enough threat for 4+ runs.
Player Prop Watch: Sandy Alcantara (Strikeouts)
Sandy had a poor season overall, became obvious trade bait… and surprisingly, the Marlins held put. But his finish to the year was much better: last 8 starts, 2.68 ERA, and a strikeout rate just under one per inning.
Tomorrow he gets another Opening Day start for the Fish against a Rockies side that:
- was the second-worst strikeout team in baseball last year, and
- slipped to worst in the league on the road.
Colorado’s road K-rate was nearly 29% last season. Sandy also fanned 7 in his Opening Day start last year at home vs the Pirates.
Bet365 pricing (at time of writing):
- 6+ strikeouts @ 2.50 (generous)
- small top-up sprinkle available if you can find 8+ strikeouts at a price you like
More markets should open up across books tomorrow — keep your eyes peeled.
Bonus (Eric’s Early Slate Play)
Tigers -1.5 (Run Line) with Tarik Skubal
Price: $2.30+ (varies by book)
Eric’s angle here is simple: if Detroit are favoured and Skubal is dealing, the run line price is the value.
His rationale:
- Skubal looks primed to pitch deep and pitch well
- He wanted to pitch more in the WBC — but there’s also an argument that not logging extra WBC innings leaves him fresher and ready to go
- Opening Day can be a “pounce early” spot, and Eric likes the plus-money -1.5 number for a team he expects to control the game
