If you’re reading this on Good Friday, congratulations. You’ve either got a long weekend ahead, or you’re “working from home” with one eye on the slate like the rest of us.
Eric and I have dropped a couple of plays each, plus we’ve got a fun little home run segment at the end. The rule for the HR picks was simple: pick a guy who still hasn’t homered in 2026 and call who breaks the duck this weekend.
Odds will move, markets will shift, and nothing here is financial advice. Keep it responsible.
Spoon’s Picks
1) Same Game Multi
Eury Pérez 6+ strikeouts + Marlins alternate team total Over 2.5 at 2.05
Pérez was lights out in his season opener, but the most encouraging thing was the trust. He went back out for the 7th and threw 93 pitches first time around, and he punched out 8 Rockies. The books have respected him with a 7.5 K line, but that’s a touch high as a standalone.
Instead, I’m playing it smarter. I still want a piece of his Ks, but I’m pairing it with a Marlins team total angle because Miami’s offence has been rolling early, and the production has not just been top-heavy. If they can get us to 3 runs, this sits nicely.
2) Strikeout Prop
MacKenzie Gore Over 6.5 strikeouts at 1.88
Gore started 2025 by striking out 13 and never really took his foot off the throat. He punched out 68 hitters across his first 8 starts, which is 8.5 per game.
One of those starts was a 9 strikeout game on the road against this same Reds opponent. Cincy is built to live in the “three true outcomes” world, and Gore’s arsenal plays to that. He was just as effective against righties as lefties last season, and it would not surprise me if this is one of the last times we see this line and price combo in 2026.
Eric’s Picks
1) Moneyline
Brewers to win vs Royals at 2.00
Eric’s angle is simple. This looks like a bullpen game for the Royals. Milwaukee are 5-1, and the Royals bullpen has started rough. If you can get the Brewers at double your money, you take it.
2) Total
Astros vs Athletics Under 10 (1.90)
Or: Astros win + Under 10 (3.80)
The market is overcompensating for Sacramento. Eric’s note: 12 of the last 20 games there have finished Under 10, so it’s better than a 50-50 look at this number. If you want a bigger price, pairing it with an Astros win gets you around 3.80.
Home run drought breakers (first homer of 2026)
The boys each picked a name who is still sitting on zero homers this season. Here’s who we think breaks through this weekend.
Spoon’s pick: Fernando Tatis Jr.
A surprising lack of power to start the year, slugging just .286. He’s also faced some serious pitching early (Skubal, Valdez, Webb). Now he gets Fenway, which is a lovely place to accidentally hit one out, and he’s up against Sonny Gray. It feels like a weekend where one climbs over the Monster and the duck disappears.
Eric’s pick: Addison Barger
He’s 0-for-16 and due for something loud. Eric’s angle is hard contact: last year Barger ran a 50% hard-hit rate vs right-handers. He’s facing a mid-righty and the White Sox. Due, right?
Rolsey’s pick: Ronald Acuña Jr.
Ronnie hasn’t had the start he wanted, but the breakout feels inevitable. The Diamondbacks are throwing Ryne Nelson and Eduardo Rodriguez in the first two games of this series, and both have shown they can give up the long ball. Rolsey’s betting on the “sooner rather than later” version of Acuña.
